CHARLESTON, W.Va. -- If you look at a graph of Charleston's declining population and extend the line out, it's clear that unless something unexpected happens - a spike in homebuilding, maybe a baby boom - the line will soon dip below 50,000.

Mayor Danny Jones wants to make sure that doesn't happen, especially with the 2010 Census around the corner. Once Census takers finish their door-to-door count, their tally is locked in for the next 10 years.

"If we go below 50,000, it's an issue," Jones said. "I haven't conceded that yet." He says he's already talked to Census officials to make sure they count every last resident.

Aside from that, Charleston might add population by expanding its boundaries - either through some sort of combined city-county government or by annexing nearby neighborhoods.

City-county (metro) government seems like a long shot, though county officials continue to promote the concept. So the Sunday Gazette-Mail asked Jones about annexation.

"That's the last thing I want to do right now," he said. But his reason might surprise you.

"My fight is at the state Capitol. It's something Lisa [Dooley, director of the West Virginia Municipal League] and I are working on full time. I don't want to escalate the climate of fear. It's the county commissions and the BIC [Business and Industry Council] people."

Both groups have been urging the Legislature to make it harder for cities to annex property, Jones said. The county effort has been led by Jefferson County, which is trying to keep rapidly expanding Ranson from getting even bigger, he said.

"If you stop the spreading that Ranson is doing, you're stopping us," Jones said.

Even so, Charleston leaders wouldn't oppose any "friendly" annexation bids, where an outlying neighborhood asks to join the city. In fact, one such effort has already started.

Some residents along Terry Road, near Southridge Center, have asked city Planning Director Dan Vriendt about possible annexation, but no formal steps have been taken.

State law gives cities three options for annexing property, Vriendt said: Annexation with or without election, and by minor boundary adjustment. Of the three, the first is rare.

"I've never done annexation by election, but the city's done it in the past," Vriendt said. "North Charleston may have done it."

First, at least 5 percent of a city's residents must sign a petition asking to annex a certain area. Then, a majority of voters in both the city and the area to be annexed have to approve it.

By contrast, the other two methods are much easier. (See infobox on this page).

Charleston has used the latter two methods to annex about two dozen subdivisions and other sites in the last 20 or so years - Hunters Ridge, Brookstone, Oakvale Road, Whispering Woods and Mount Alpha, parts of Sherwood Forest, Presidential Estates, Daniel Boone Park, Meadowbrook (Capital High) and the Charleston landfill. And don't forget sections of Southridge Centre and the Dudley Farms property, now some of the richest commercial land in the city.

"The last two annexations we did were Gettysburg, on Corridor G, and The Woodlands," a subdivision along Clark Road, Vriendt said. In both cases, "We were dealing with the developer. Once properties are sold, it gets much harder."

But even with all these additions, Charleston's population has continued to decline. The Sunday Gazette-Mail looked at other areas adjacent to the city, and analyzed 2000 Census data, with an eye toward guessing where the city might look next if wants to grow again.

On the west, the city bumps into two other municipalities - South Charleston and Dunbar. But there appear to be areas in all other directions that could be annexed if the conditions were right.

Using 2000 Census boundaries, the Gazette-Mail identified a dozen "neighborhoods," gave them arbitrary names based on nearby roads, geography or existing place names, and used Census data to figure out how much each neighborhood could add to the city's population. The results are seen in the map/graphic above.

In all, the Gazette-Mail found almost 7,000 people living in more than 3,000 housing units just outside city limits. These figures are certain to be inaccurate now, as they're at least eight years old. But they give some idea of the possibilities.

For example, about 500 people live in an area to the northwest, generally out Woodward Drive. A section along Greenbrier Street near Capital High School has about 250 people. Malden could boost the city population by about 725, the greater Loudendale area could add 550 while another 330 folks live along Davis Creek.

When the city extended an "umbilical cord" up Mount Alpha Road a dozen years ago to annex homes in the Whispering Woods and Mount Alpha subdivisions, people who lived beside the road chose to stay outside the city. They could provide a population boost of 100 or more if they've had a change of heart now.

CHARLESTON, W.Va. -- If you look at a graph of Charleston's declining population and extend the line out, it's clear that unless something unexpected happens - a spike in homebuilding, maybe a baby boom - the line will soon dip below 50,000.

Mayor Danny Jones wants to make sure that doesn't happen, especially with the 2010 Census around the corner. Once Census takers finish their door-to-door count, their tally is locked in for the next 10 years.

"If we go below 50,000, it's an issue," Jones said. "I haven't conceded that yet." He says he's already talked to Census officials to make sure they count every last resident.

Aside from that, Charleston might add population by expanding its boundaries - either through some sort of combined city-county government or by annexing nearby neighborhoods.

City-county (metro) government seems like a long shot, though county officials continue to promote the concept. So the Sunday Gazette-Mail asked Jones about annexation.

"That's the last thing I want to do right now," he said. But his reason might surprise you.

"My fight is at the state Capitol. It's something Lisa [Dooley, director of the West Virginia Municipal League] and I are working on full time. I don't want to escalate the climate of fear. It's the county commissions and the BIC [Business and Industry Council] people."

Both groups have been urging the Legislature to make it harder for cities to annex property, Jones said. The county effort has been led by Jefferson County, which is trying to keep rapidly expanding Ranson from getting even bigger, he said.

"If you stop the spreading that Ranson is doing, you're stopping us," Jones said.

Even so, Charleston leaders wouldn't oppose any "friendly" annexation bids, where an outlying neighborhood asks to join the city. In fact, one such effort has already started.

Some residents along Terry Road, near Southridge Center, have asked city Planning Director Dan Vriendt about possible annexation, but no formal steps have been taken.

State law gives cities three options for annexing property, Vriendt said: Annexation with or without election, and by minor boundary adjustment. Of the three, the first is rare.

"I've never done annexation by election, but the city's done it in the past," Vriendt said. "North Charleston may have done it."

First, at least 5 percent of a city's residents must sign a petition asking to annex a certain area. Then, a majority of voters in both the city and the area to be annexed have to approve it.

By contrast, the other two methods are much easier. (See infobox on this page).

Charleston has used the latter two methods to annex about two dozen subdivisions and other sites in the last 20 or so years - Hunters Ridge, Brookstone, Oakvale Road, Whispering Woods and Mount Alpha, parts of Sherwood Forest, Presidential Estates, Daniel Boone Park, Meadowbrook (Capital High) and the Charleston landfill. And don't forget sections of Southridge Centre and the Dudley Farms property, now some of the richest commercial land in the city.

"The last two annexations we did were Gettysburg, on Corridor G, and The Woodlands," a subdivision along Clark Road, Vriendt said. In both cases, "We were dealing with the developer. Once properties are sold, it gets much harder."

But even with all these additions, Charleston's population has continued to decline. The Sunday Gazette-Mail looked at other areas adjacent to the city, and analyzed 2000 Census data, with an eye toward guessing where the city might look next if wants to grow again.

On the west, the city bumps into two other municipalities - South Charleston and Dunbar. But there appear to be areas in all other directions that could be annexed if the conditions were right.

Using 2000 Census boundaries, the Gazette-Mail identified a dozen "neighborhoods," gave them arbitrary names based on nearby roads, geography or existing place names, and used Census data to figure out how much each neighborhood could add to the city's population. The results are seen in the map/graphic above.

In all, the Gazette-Mail found almost 7,000 people living in more than 3,000 housing units just outside city limits. These figures are certain to be inaccurate now, as they're at least eight years old. But they give some idea of the possibilities.

For example, about 500 people live in an area to the northwest, generally out Woodward Drive. A section along Greenbrier Street near Capital High School has about 250 people. Malden could boost the city population by about 725, the greater Loudendale area could add 550 while another 330 folks live along Davis Creek.

When the city extended an "umbilical cord" up Mount Alpha Road a dozen years ago to annex homes in the Whispering Woods and Mount Alpha subdivisions, people who lived beside the road chose to stay outside the city. They could provide a population boost of 100 or more if they've had a change of heart now.

The biggest plum is the area up U.S. 119 that includes the residential neighborhoods of Knollwood and those off Dutch Road - more than 1,800 people.

"If I could annex anywhere it would be Knollwood," Jones said. Beyond that, the prospects taper off quickly in Jones' eyes.

Woodward Drive? Loudendale? Davis Creek? Johnson Road? All lack city-grade infrastructure, he said. "We're not going to go backwards for the sake of population. There are some areas you want to be very careful in taking in because of sewers, or lack thereof."

Mount Alpha? "We can't make them."

That may be the key issue. State Sen. Brooks McCabe, a strong advocate of city growth by any method, says annexation must be approached with care.

"You can do friendly annexation, where everyone wants to do it. But to get into a fight with someone makes no sense.

"Size certainly makes a difference in competing for securing dollars," he said. "So size does matter. The perception of dropping below 50,000 is important." Also, under state law 50,000 is the lower limit for a Class 1 city.

A larger population would help marketing efforts, McCabe said. "We don't position ourselves well at how we look at the national level. We don't look as strong as we really are, because of how the data looks on the Census. So part of where the mayor is coming from is it is important to stay above 50,000."

Historically, those who live in areas outside Charleston - Cross Lanes in particular - have fought annexation efforts, preferring to stay rural.

"I think you could say that about Elkview and Sissonville, too," McCabe said. "They like it that way. These areas have improved over the years and they have become nice residential areas."

Yet there would be benefits, he said. "You can provide refuse collection, better roads, sanitary sewer, police and fire. These are services people gravitate toward. These are things people look at and say 'My fire insurance will go down if I'm in a city.'"

Annexation, if it happens, will need cost-benefit analyses from both sides, McCabe said.

"I don't see a land grab out there. I see a serious negotiation with landowners. I think the city will quietly approach communities.

"The worst thing is not to change. We have to move forward."

Reach Jim Balow at ba...@wvgazette.com or 348-5102.

How can a city annex property?

Under state law, cities have three different ways to annex property:

Annexation by election

At least 5 percent of the city's residents file a petition. Majorities of voters in the city and area to be annexed must approve.

Annexation without election

A majority of voters in the area to be annexed petition the city. After review by city officials and boards, the City Council has final approval.

Annexation by minor boundary adjustment

In order to annex streets or highways, often to connect to areas outside city limits, cities must show they can provide services such as police, fire protection, water and sewers. The County Commission has final approval.