Aides argue that Romney has built a more sophisticated voter-contact system than Republican John McCain did in 2008, when Obama carried Iowa by 9 percentage points. And although Romney has only 14 staffed state campaign offices, compared with Obama's 67, Republicans say they have made more than 1 million contacts with voters by telephone and in person.
If the polls are right, the GOP ticket has a lot of ground to make up.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll taken last week found Romney trailing Obama by 8 percentage points, a finding that mirrored recent internal polls from Democrats and Republicans alike. The poll also found that only 40 percent had positive feelings about Romney, down from 43 percent in May. Conversely, Obama saw his favorability rating improve to 53 percent from 48 percent over that same period.
Those figures illustrate why Obama's campaign is increasingly confident about its Iowa prospects even as aides say they expect the race to tighten somewhat as undecided voters focus on the election.
Democrats say Obama has benefited from his Iowa strategy of blanketing the state with eight presidential visits ahead of early voting. Obama hoped that his frequent visits, as well as constant appearances by Vice President Joe Biden and first lady Michelle Obama, would help him build a lead over Romney ahead of Election Day, when Republicans traditionally have had an edge.
Obama focused his attention on more populous and politically diverse eastern Iowa. The small and medium-sized cities, many with struggling manufacturing sectors, were friendly territory for Romney in the Iowa caucuses but now show him trailing Obama in internal polling. Obama's three-day, statewide trip in August touched down in less-traveled cities in north- and south-central Iowa. He also made a well-publicized visit to the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines.
The president also has run more than $20 million in ads, including many that characterize Romney and his positions as those of a wealthy, detached former business executive. Obama allies also have spent roughly $3 million in advertising.
Obama aides say Romney's criticism of Obama's handling of the economy has been less effective here than it has been in states such as harder-hit Florida and Nevada. In August, Iowa unemployment was 5.5 percent, up from July but far below the national average of 8.1 percent.
But Obama aides also say Romney hasn't made as much of an effort to build a personal connection with voters in a state where face-to-face campaigning is key, and they say his comment about 47 percent of Americans who don't pay federal income tax has been problematic.
"He doesn't think poor people are his problem," Oskaloosa Democrat Pam Douglas said. "They are his problem if he wants to be president."