Muchow said he consulted with economists at West Virginia University and Marshall, who reached the same conclusion.
"They're pretty much in agreement there's a lot of shifting of economic activity," he said.
Similarly, Muchow said payroll and personal income tax collections should not be significantly affected statewide, even though many restaurants and other businesses in the affected areas were closed for days.
Lost income for idled workers in the affected areas will probably be offset by businesses in the neighboring areas that paid employees overtime and called in additional workers to handle the surge of customers.
Still to be determined, he said, is whether the crisis will have a long-term effect on convention and tourism business in the Charleston area, if travelers and conventions opt for other locations over concerns about health and environmental issues.
Historically, tourism destinations may see downturns after disasters, either natural or manmade, but the impact is usually short-lived, he said.
"I would think the tourism business in New Orleans is in pretty good shape these days," he said, noting tourism there rebounded after the city was devastated by flooding following Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
Reach Phil Kabler at ph...@wvgazette.com or 304-348-1220.