With both parties in agreement that House control is in play this fall, buoyant Republicans are assembling their roster of targeted districts and worried Democrats are building bunkers to protect their majority.
Privately, Democrats are steeling for a loss of at least 25 seats. For Republicans, the expectations are much higher after an August recess that improved GOP prospects — some are already envisioning a 1994-like wave, when Republicans picked up 52 seats.
But whether Nov. 2 is a good night for Republicans, a great night or even a historic one will depend on how close they come to winning the 39 seats necessary to win control of the House. And their success is contingent on how deeply the party can cut into several distinct classes of Democratic-held seats.
[Also see POLITICO's comprehensive guide to all the polling, fundraising information and handicapping from the year's hottest House races.]
To get to that 39-seat magic number — which, in reality, is probably somewhere in the low 40s due to the likelihood of a few GOP-held seats being lost — Republicans will need to win dozens of Democratic seats that feature varying degrees of difficulty.
In an attempt to offer a roadmap to how the House majority will be won in November, POLITICO’s reporters and editors have outlined three categories of Democratic-controlled seats in play this fall, a total of 75 House seats in all, with another 13 that are on the bubble.
The first group includes the most imperiled Democratic seats — these are the “must-wins” — without which the GOP has no shot at House control. It’s a roster filled with freshmen who benefited from Barack Obama’s coattails, the most vulnerable veterans and Republican-friendly open seats where the retirement of a Democratic incumbent has created a prime pick-up opportunity. If Republicans can’t win most of these seats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will take the gavel again for the 112th Congress.
The second group of seats could be labeled the “majority makers”—a class of races that are within GOP reach, but will require defeating well-prepared Democratic incumbents or winning on highly competitive terrain. If the GOP is winning most of these races on election night, a Republican majority will be close at hand. If not, Democrats still have a chance of waking up Nov. 3 with a slim margin in the House.
The third group could be described as the “landslide” class. For the most part, these districts are a tough climb for GOP candidates, either because of the strength of the Democratic incumbent or the partisan tilt of the seat. If the Democrats in this category start to fall on election night, a wave election is unfolding.
Here is POLITICO’s guide to the most at-risk Democratic-held seats.
MUST WINS
ARKANSAS 2ND DISTRICT (OPEN): Polling suggests that former prosecutor Tim Griffin is in a strong position against state Sen. Joyce Elliott for the Little Rock-based seat left vacant by the retirement of Rep. Vic Snyder.
COLORADO 4TH DISTRICT: Rep. Betsy Markey has taken some tough votes in a tough seat. And state Rep. Cory Gardner is a top challenger in this Republican-leaning district.
FLORIDA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Allen Boyd, who narrowly escaped an August primary upset, may find the fall election even more challenging in his Republican-oriented, Tallahassee-based district.
FLORIDA 8TH DISTRICT: Bomb-throwing liberal Rep. Alan Grayson’s approach doesn’t reflect the competitive nature of this Orlando-area seat. The freshman is one of the most cash-flush House incumbents but faces a top GOP opponent.
FLORIDA 24TH DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas was vulnerable in her GOP-leaning district even before she flipped from opposing the Democratic health care plan to supporting it.
INDIANA 8TH DISTRICT (OPEN): The decision by Rep. Brad Ellsworth to run for the Senate has made this GOP-oriented, Southern Indiana-based seat — 62% for George W. Bush in 2004 — a prime Republican pick-up opportunity.
KANSAS 3rd DISTRICT (OPEN): The retirement of Rep. Dennis Moore has given Republicans an exceptional opportunity in a GOP-friendly suburban seat.
LOUISIANA 3RD DISTRICT (OPEN): With Rep. Charlie Melancon running for the Senate, this GOP-oriented district should be a tap in for whichever Republican emerges from the Oct. 2 runoff, given Obama’s low standing in Louisiana.
MARYLAND 1ST DISTRICT: Energetic freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil faces a steep climb in holding onto this Eastern Shore-based district that voted overwhelmingly against President Barack Obama in 2008.
MISSISSIPPI 1ST DISTRICT: Rep. Travis Childers, who captured this northern Mississippi-based seat in a May 2008 special election, is swimming against a strong tide in his state and faces state Sen. Alan Nunnelee.
NEVADA 3RD DISTRICT: High unemployment and home foreclosure rates in the Las Vegas area are among the issues threatening to prevent first-term Rep. Dina Titus from winning reelection. Polls show a dead heat with ex-state Sen. Joe Heck.
NEW MEXICO 2ND DISTRICT: In this energy-producing district, Rep. Harry Teague’s vote for cap-and-trade legislation may be too much for him to overcome in his contest against his immediate predecessor, former Rep. Steve Pearce.
NEW YORK 29TH DISTRICT (OPEN): Democrats have not recovered from the resignation of Rep. Eric Massa and appear to have written off this GOP-leaning seat.
NORTH DAKOTA AT-LARGE: Republicans view Rick Berg as one of their best contenders and for months public polls have shown him with a lead over nine-term Rep. Earl Pomeroy in this Republican state.
OHIO 1ST DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. Steve Driehaus benefited from Obama coattails, particularly among African-Americans, and Republicans point to grim polling that suggests ex-Rep. Steve Chabot is on a trajectory to win back his seat in this rematch.
OHIO 15TH DISTRICT: First-term Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy, who ran more than 30,000 votes behind the top-of-the-ticket, barely eked out a win in 2008 against Steve Stivers — who is back for a rematch.
OHIO 16TH DISTRICT: In this GOP-leaning district, freshman Rep. John Boccieri faces a well-funded Republican after casting a potentially costly vote for cap-and-trade and a high-profile vote for health care reform.
PENNSYLVANIA 7TH DISTRICT (OPEN): With Rep. Joe Sestak running for the Senate, ex-prosecutor Pat Meehan seems well-positioned to return this Delaware County-based seat to its historic GOP roots.
PENNSYLVANIA 11th DISTRICT: Ethics woes have taken their toll on Rep. Paul Kanjorski, who ran five points behind Obama in 2008, then failed to win a majority in the May primary.
SOUTH DAKOTA AT-LARGE: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is running in a bad environment in a tough state for Democrats. She faces her toughest challenger to date in state Rep. Kristi Noem.
TENNESSEE 6TH DISTRICT (OPEN): Following the retirement of Rep. Bart Gordon, Democrats could not find a credible candidate. Republican state Sen. Diane Black is the all-but-certain winner in this 62 percent John McCain district.
TENNESSEE 8TH DISTRICT (OPEN): Stephen Fincher became a darling of the national GOP after his entry into the race encouraged Rep. John Tanner to retire. He has a serious contest against state Sen. Roy Herron, who is running competitively despite strong headwinds.
VIRGINIA 2ND DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. Glenn Nye picked off a shaky GOP incumbent in a strong Democratic year to win this Republican-oriented, military-heavy seat.
VIRGINIA 5TH DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. Tom Perriello has hit the hustings as hard as any member. But with his voting record — and without Obama driving turnout this year — it’s an uphill fight in a Republican-leaning district that gave 61 percent to GOP Gov. Bob McDonnell in 2009.
WASHINGTON 3RD DISTRICT (OPEN): With the retirement of Rep. Brian Baird, state Rep. Jaime Herrera gives the GOP an excellent pickup opportunity in one of the most evenly balanced districts in the nation.
MAJORITY MAKERS
ALABAMA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Bobby Bright has done virtually everything possible to distance himself from national Democrats. But in this Republican-oriented seat challenger Martha Roby is hammering him by citing his vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker.
ARIZONA 5TH DISTRICT: In a rough year for Arizona Democrats, two-term Rep. Harry Mitchell faces a rematch with Republican David Schweikert in a GOP-leaning district.
ARKANSAS 1st DISTRICT (OPEN): In a district that gave John McCain 59 percent in 2008, Chad Causey, a former aide to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, has struggled to unite Democrats after a bruising primary.
GEORGIA 8TH DISTRICT: In his GOP-oriented district, Rep. Jim Marshall tends to run weaker in midterm elections and Republicans are enthusiastic about state Rep. Austin Scott.
ILLINOIS 11TH DISTRICT: It’s no cakewalk for Illinois Democrats this year, and it's especially difficult for a first-termer like Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who has a tougher GOP foe this time around in Adam Kinzinger.
ILLINOIS 14TH DISTRICT: This Aurora-based district, held by the GOP for 70 years (and former House Speaker Denny Hastert) until Rep. Bill Foster won it in a 2008 special election, is up for grabs.
INDIANA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Joe Donnelly has sought to emphasize his independence in his Republican-leaning district but his vote for health care reform has hurt him with his former allies in the anti-abortion movement and the economy is a key issue in his district.
INDIANA 9TH DISTRICT: Rep. Baron Hill ran well ahead of Barack Obama in 2008 in this Republican-oriented, southeastern Indiana-based seat but his votes for health care reform and especially cap-and-trade complicate his reelection prospects.
IOWA 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Leonard Boswell, recently moved into the toss-up category by the Cook Political Report, faces state Sen. Brad Zaun without any top-of-the-ticket protection this year.
MICHIGAN 1ST DISTRICT (OPEN): The retirement of Rep. Bart Stupak provides Republicans with an excellent chance of picking up this competitive Upper Peninsula-based seat.
MICHIGAN 7TH DISTRICT: This seat has elected four different members of Congress in the past four election cycles. Freshman Rep. Mark Schauer, who won with less than a majority in 2008, faces a rematch with the former congressman he ousted, Tim Walberg.
NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST DISTRICT: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter appears to have stabilized after some very poor early polling numbers but this seat is the more Republican of the state’s two congressional districts. Republicans have a competitive Sept. 14 primary.
NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND DISTRICT (OPEN): Of the state’s two congressional districts, this is the more Democratic. But the likely GOP nominee in this open seat—left vacant by Rep. Paul Hodes’s Senate run—is former Rep. Charlie Bass, who held the seat for six terms until losing in 2006.
NEW MEXICO 1st DISTRICT: While this Albuquerque-based district has been trending Democratic, for most of its history it’s been held by a Republican and polls show a close race between freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich and Republican Jon Barela.
NEW YORK 23RD DISTRICT: Rep. Bill Owens, who captured this upstate seat after Republicans fractured in a November 2009 special election, is vying for his first full term in a district that had been in GOP hands for roughly a century.
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