Rebuilding Iraq should be done with that nation's abundant oil wealth - but at least a third, probably more, of fuel from Iraq's largest refinery flows into the black market, where it generates money for insurgents killing Americans and religious rivals.
"Stolen Oil Profits Keep Iraq's Insurgency Running" is the caption of a March 16 New York Times report. It says pilfered oil finances a "disparate, decentralized collection of insurgent cells" that attack occupying forces and other Iraqis.
Last year, according to Pentagon analysts, as much as 70 percent of output from the huge Baiji refinery - about $2 billion worth of gasoline, kerosene and diesel fuel - disappeared into the underground economy.
Gangs, tribes, police, town leaders and provincial officials raked in about half of those black market profits, Iraqi officials estimate. Insurgents took the other half.
The insurgency, moreover, is not monolithic. Most insurgents are working to make sure they, and their families, survive economically, the newspaper says. Fundamentalist fanatics, contrary to what many White House operatives claim, actually play a minor role. Some American military officers, reports the Times, "openly question how much a role jihadism plays in the minds of most people who carry out attacks."
Iraq's unemployment has remained high ever since the American invasion five years ago. Many U.S. military officers think a desire for a paycheck is "the overwhelming motivation of insurgents today."
And insurgent attacks are not all part of a nationwide conspiracy. One military official told the newspaper: "As far as networked coordination of attacks, we are not seeing that."
Recently, as Rolling Stone also reported, U.S. occupying forces began paying former insurgents, particularly Sunnis who lost jobs they had held under Saddam Hussein's regime, to join local and neighborhood militias.
Ultimately, all Iraqis must find be able to find work unrelated to the insurgency, senior military officials warn. "Without that outlet, a lot of guys will gravitate back. They are not going to starve their families. You have got to do what you have got to do to survive," one official told the Times.
Neoconservatives continue pointing to fanatic jihadism as the root of Iraq's problems. But the reality in that tragic country is much more complex.
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