Op-Ed Commentaries
July 13, 2008
Mel Tyree
We have one year to save climate

If there is a silver lining to the human-caused climate change crisis, it is a short-burn issue. Life on Earth will continue as it always has if we fail to solve the health-care crisis or repair our aging infrastructure in the coming decades. Not so with climate change.

Recent scientific studies indicate that if humanity doesn't stabilize and rapidly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions within the next seven years, the rate of climate change will be beyond the point of human control. This would ultimately result in the extinction of one-third to one-half of all the planet's plant and animal species before the end of this century and likely jeopardize civilization.

Recently scientists have drawn some lines in the sand which illustrate the short-burn nature of this problem. NASA's chief climatologist, Dr. Jim Hansen, on June 23, 2008, testified before Congress that "The next president and Congress must define a course next year in which the United States exerts leadership commensurate with our responsibility for the present dangerous situation. Otherwise it will become impractical to constrain atmospheric carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas produced in burning fossil fuels, to a level that prevents the climate system from passing tipping points that lead to disastrous climate changes that spiral dynamically out of humanity's control."

Many politicians in the past have complained that scientists often didn't give them specific targets. Well, 2009 is pretty specific.

In 2007, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also drew a specific line in the sand. It was the panel's consensus that the world's major polluters must stabilize their greenhouse gas emissions by 2015 or it would not be possible to avoid catastrophic climate change. They also noted that only "urgent" action would do to achieve this goal. That's pretty clear and specific.

Members of the U.S. Senate did take urgent action in June 2008: They killed the Climate Security Act, which would have mandated an 18 to 22 percent reduction in U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2020.

Another extremely important line in the sand may be crossed by the summer of 2012. In a nationalgeographic.com interview, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally noted that at its current melt rate, the entire summer Arctic ice cap could be nearly melted by the summer of 2012. That ice cap serves a very important function as the Northern Hemisphere's radiator. Without it, ocean temperatures would rapidly increase and accelerate the impacts of global warming. Those interested can actually watch the rapid disappearance of the Arctic ice cap at the National Snow and Ice Data Center's Web site.

On June 19, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration published a major study on the impacts of global warming to our weather system. The study concluded the following: "The global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat trapping gases," and "The increase in heavy precipitation events is associated with an increase in water vapor, and the latter has been attributed to human-induced warming." While this is not the first study to make this conclusion, it does substantiate the previous study results with present-day data.

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